Tracking2027As of Jul 12, 2026

Tracking two
AGI timelines.

Measuring extracted claims to see if we’re on trend.

AI 20272025Situational Awareness2024

Summary

Forecast pace

Are measurable checkpoints arriving earlier or later than forecast?

0.1 months ahead of predictions
Forecast time warp by original timingEvery dot stays on its original forecast date. Vertical position uses an explicitly recorded observation, period end, or interpolated threshold crossing to show months early or late. Claims without supported timing stay out of the fit. A vertical dashed line marks today. The solid local fit ends with the evidence, and a flat dashed line carries its latest offset to the original forecast date.−18−12−60On schedule+6+12+18Months early / late202520262027

Timeline ledger

Every claim, quarter by quarter

Vague predictions stay out. Direct measures, declared proxies, and bounded inferences stay in.

407 of 407 claims
2024 · Q23 total⏳ 3
2024 · Q410 total✅ 5 · ❌ 1 · ❓ 4
2025 · Q11 total❌ 1
2025 · Q24 total✅ 2 · ❓ 2
2025 · Q314 total✅ 4 · ❌ 2 · ❓ 8
2025 · Q415 total✅ 4 · ❌ 5 · ❓ 6
2026 · Q12 total⏳ 2
2026 · Q215 total✅ 5 · ❌ 2 · ❓ 8
2026 · Q37 total⏳ 7
2026 · Q425 total✅ 6 · ⏳ 19
2027 · Q132 total⏳ 32
2027 · Q227 total⏳ 27
2027 · Q333 total⏳ 33
2027 · Q457 total⏳ 57
2028 · Q120 total⏳ 20
2028 · Q223 total⏳ 23
2028 · Q315 total⏳ 15
2028 · Q432 total⏳ 32
2029 · Q24 total⏳ 4
2029 · Q424 total⏳ 24
2030 · Q422 total⏳ 22
2032 · Q41 total⏳ 1
2034 · Q21 total⏳ 1
2035 · Q49 total⏳ 9
2038 · Q41 total⏳ 1
2039 · Q42 total⏳ 2
2040 · Q41 total⏳ 1
Unbounded7 total✅ 2 · ⏳ 5

Primary sources

Read the forecasts in full

This project is independent of both author groups. Page references follow the publisher PDFs.

01

AI 2027

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean

A concrete scenario tracing agent adoption, frontier compute, automated AI research, and two possible endings through 2027.

Website ↗Publisher PDF ↗
02

Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead

Leopold Aschenbrenner

An essay series forecasting capability gains, an intelligence explosion, industrial buildout, and government mobilization.

Website ↗Publisher PDF ↗