AI 2027
A concrete scenario tracing agent adoption, frontier compute, automated AI research, and two possible endings through 2027.
As of Oct 8, 2026
Tracking two AGI timelines.
Experts suggest we will have AGI in 2027. Here we extract claims and measure their attainment to see if we’re on trend.
Summary
Forecast pace
+7.2 months ahead of predictions
Claim ledger
Source
Status
Domain
Standards
- Forecast pace chart. The trend is a LOESS fit through each claim's months early or late, with an 80% band from reweighted refits.
- Chart readings. Targets read off a figure are scored within ±0.3 OOM, about a factor of two, since a drawn curve can't be read more precisely.
Read the forecasts in full
Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
An essay series forecasting capability gains, an intelligence explosion, industrial buildout, and government mobilization.